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Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.

AbstractAn amalgam of empirical data from laboratory and field studies is needed to build robust, theoretical models of climate impacts that can provide science‐based advice for sustainable management of fish and shellfish resources. Using a semi‐systematic literature review, Gap Analysis and multilevel meta‐analysis, we assessed the status of empirical knowledge on the direct effects of climate change on 37 high‐value species targeted by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors operating in marine and freshwater regions. Knowledge on potential climate change‐related drivers (single or combined) on several responses (vital rates) across four categories (exploitation sector, region, life stage, species), was considerably unbalanced as well as biased, including a low number of studies (a) examining the interaction of abiotic factors, (b) offering opportunities to assess local adaptation, (c) targeting lower‐value species. The meta‐analysis revealed that projected warming would increase mean growth rates in fish and mollusks and significantly elevate metabolic rates in fish. Decreased levels of dissolved oxygen depressed rates of growth and metabolism across coherent species groups (e.g., small pelagics, etc.) while expected declines in pH reduced growth in most species groups and increased mortality in bivalves. The meta‐analytical results were influenced by the study design and moderators (e.g., life stage, season). Although meta‐analytic tools have become increasingly popular, when performed on the limited available data, these analyses cannot grasp relevant population effects, even in species with a long history of study. We recommend actions to overcome these shortcomings and improve mechanistic (cause‐and‐effect) projections of climate impacts on fish and shellfish.

The Galician shelf off NW Spain (43N° 9W°) exhibits mesoscale spatial and temporal changes in biological productivity associated with upwelling. Spatial heterogeneity results from local geomorphic and land‐sea interactions superimposed on the large scale atmospheric processes that produce upwelling. Wind‐induced upwelling events, commonly of short (i.e., week) duration, are more common in the summer than in the winter. A series of cruises, including some time series sampling, and satellite imagery analysis showed that surface upwelling was more common and persistent on the northern coast compared with the western coast off the coastal embayments, the Rias Bajas. Near shore off the rias, coastal runoff, which is greater in the rainy winter/spring versus the dry summer, affected upwelling. In early summer, upwelling less often reaches the surface because of increased water column stratification associated with lower surface salinities and thus upwelling is not detected by satellite imagery. Conversely, in late summer, upwelling more often reaches the surface because coastal runoff is reduced during the dry summer months and the water column tends to be less stratified. Plankton biomass and rate processes along the Galician shelf reflected both ambient hydrographic conditions as well as prior history of upwelling or downwelling. Phytoplankton and bacterioplankton were in greatest abundance during upwelling conditions (June through August); in contrast, both Zooplankton and fish larvae exhibited highest abundances in March, when there were upwelling conditions prior to our cruise. Spatial differences in the duration and frequency of upwelling events, in combination with advection of water masses, are critical to the patterns of water column productivity and sardine fisheries production off the Galician coast. More persistent upwelling at this NW corner of the Iberian peninsula supports large sardine fisheries because Zooplankton and larval fish populations have time to respond to the higher primary production. Farther down the western Galician coast, the episodic upwelling and resultant intermittent primary production does not support a stable food supply needed to support fisheries. Times series sampling revealed mean response times of bacteria, phytoplankton, and Zooplankton to be on the order of a day, days, and weeks, respectively. Sardines showed no spawning response in the relatively short time series sampling. The observed distributional patterns of fish eggs and larvae showed some offshore transport of fish larvae that were spawned inshore during upwelling periods and aggregation of larvae in a convergence zone northwest of Cabo Villano.

29 pagex, 9 figures, 2 tables The Catalan Sea, located between the eastern Iberian coast and the Balearic Islands, is a representative portion of the western Mediterranean basin and provides a valuable case study for climate change effects on Mediterranean ecosystems. Global warming is reflected regionally by a rise in sea level over the last century, an increase in surface temperature of around 1.1°C in the last 35 yr, a progressive salinisation of intermediate and deep waters and a strengthening of the stratification. A likely scenario of what we can expect in the Mediterranean Sea is a considerable decrease in rainfall and wind, warmer surface waters and a prolonged stratification period. The effects on Mediterranean ecosystems are evident in: (1) a meridionalisation of the algal, invertebrate and vertebrate species, which favours the more thermophilic species over the temperate species; (2) mass mortality events of sessile invertebrates of the coralligenous communities owing to anomalous warm waters during the period when food is scarce; (3) increases in the smallest phytoplankton due to the prolongation of the water stratification period; (4) proliferation of gelatinous carnivores, including jellyfish, due to the temperature rise and the lack of rainfall; (5) a faster acidification of seawater, compared with the global oceans, accompanied by a decrease in the capacity to absorb atmospheric CO2. In order to anticipate and mitigate these predicted changes, we recommend investing in research and observation, conserving areas that serve as indicators of climate change and reducing other anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, overfishing or pollution, which may act synergistically to accelerate these changes E.C., C.P., M.R. and R.C. acknowledge funding from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through grants CTM2009-08849/MAR, CTM2006-01463 and CGL2007-66757-C02-01/BOS and a Ramón y Cajal contract to E.C. This paper is a contribution from the Marine Biogeochemistry and Global Change research group, funded by Generalitat de Catalunya (Catalan Government) through grant 2009SGR142 Peer reviewed

The age and growth patterns of the mesopelagic fish Ceratoscopelus maderensis (family Myctophidae) of the western Mediterranean Sea were described throughout its entire life cycle (from larvae to adult stages) using the sagittae otoliths of 59 individuals collected in December 2009. Three characteristic zones were identified along the cross-section of the sagittae (larval, metamorphic and juvenile-adult zones). Assuming growth rings as daily increments, the age of the analysed individuals (from 3.5 to 64 mm standard length [SL]) would range from 7 to 332 days. The relationship between the number of increments and the fish SL was fitted to a von Bertalanffy growth model (SL=70.5899Å~(1–exp(–0.0501(t+2.6705))). The growth pattern of C. maderensis in the western Mediterranean Sea was similar to that reported for this species in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Though from a body size of 40-45 mm SL, growth rates declined more slowly in individuals from the western Mediterranean Sea, growth differences between these individuals and those from the northeast Atlantic Ocean were not statistically significant. This study provides new insights into the age and growth patterns of one of the most abundant mesopelagic fish species in the Mediterranean Sea that have clear implications for the study and management of marine ecosystems.

Ocean acidification and warming are challenging marine organisms and ecosystems around the world. The synergetic effects of these two climate change stressors on jellyfish remain still understudied. Here, we examine the independent and combined effects of these two environmental variables on polyp population dynamics of the Mediterranean jellyfish Cotylorhiza tuberculata. An experiment was conducted to examine asexual reproduction by budding and strobilation considering current and ca. 2100 winter (Trial 1, 36 days) and summer (Trial 2, 36 days) conditions under the RCP8.5 (IPCC 2013). In Trial 1, a temperature of 18°C and two pH levels (current: 7.9 and, reduced: 7.7) were tested. Trial 2 considered two temperature levels 24°C and 30°C, under current and reduced acidification conditions (8.0 and 7.7, respectively). Ephyrae size and statolith formation of released ephyrae from polyps exposed to summer temperatures under both acidification treatment was also analyzed. Zooxanthellae density inside the polyps throughout the experiment was measured. C. tuberculata polyps could cope with the conditions mimicked in all experimental treatments and no significant effect of pH, temperature, or the combination of both variables on the abundance of polyps was observed. At 18°C, strobilation was reduced under high PCO2 conditions. Under summer treatments (24°C and 30°C), percentage strobilation was very low and several released ephyrae suffered malformations and reduced size, as a consequence of reduced pH and elevated temperatures, separately. The number of statoliths was not affected by pH or temperature, however, bigger statoliths were formed at elevated temperatures (30°C). Finally, zooxanthellae density was not affected by experimental conditions, even if, the duration of the experiment significantly affected symbiont concentration. Our results show that even though polyps of C. tuberculata would thrive the future worst scenario predicted for the Mediterranean Sea, their capacity to undergo a proper strobilation and to produce healthy ephyrae will be more vulnerable to climate induced environmental conditions, thereby affecting medusae recruitment and, therefore, population dynamics of the species.