• Energy Research
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A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

This research investigates the relationships among renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and financial development in five sub-Saharan African nations utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020. Econometric methods are used to ascertain the existence or absence of cross-sectional dependence and the short-run and long-run connections between the following factors: Pesaran cross-sectional dependence (CD) and cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root tests, pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimations. The presence of cross-sectional dependence is found and represented with the CIPS unit root test. No significant short-run relationship is found between the variables of the study, yet a significant long-run relationship is present among them. A positive relationship exists between CO2 emissions and financial development, while financial development and renewable energy consumption are found to have negative relationships with CO2 emissions. The study also supports the scale effect of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Additionally, no causality is found among the variables, and impulse response and variance decomposition estimation are carried out to recommend future effects. Policy implications of findings are discussed, with accompanying suggestions.

The integration of sustainable practices into infrastructure projects under the auspices of public-private partnerships (PPPs) is vital in the attainment of United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Since the inception of the SDGs in 2015, the attention of world has been shifting towards more sustainable practices and it is essential that the conventional performance measurement models on PPP projects also adapt to the trend of sustainable practices. Therefore, This study aims at reviewing and operationalising sustainable performance measures for the PPP infrastructure projects. A systematic literature review (SLR) methodology was utilised in this study. The research process began with the search, retrieval and selection of thirty-three (33) journal articles. Thoroughly, the selected articles were contently analysed to form key themes that form the basis of this research’s findings. The outcomes of this review demonstrate twenty-seven (27) most critical sustainable performance criteria of PPP projects such as the lowest project costs, green index, disability-friendly inclusion rate and carbon emission per project among others. Although, the study is limited to few journal articles, it provides theoretical and practical understanding of integration of sustainability in PPPs. Further, it gives a list of relevant research gaps for further studies. This study contributes to the benchmarking and management of sustainable performance assessment of PPP projects.

AbstractStudies have pointed out that oil price volatility influenced economic output and growth among developing and net oil‐importing countries. More than a quarter of the Philippines’ energy demand depends on crude oil, and 99% of the crude oil demand is imported mainly from the Middle East. This study was conducted to determine if there is a nonlinear or asymmetric output response to oil price movements and examine which economic sector in the Philippines is the most vulnerable to oil shocks. This contributes to the literature for a case of developing, oil importing, inflation targeting and post‐oil industry deregulated economy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model was applied to observe quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2019:Q4 of the relevant economic variables. Results revealed an asymmetric effect of non‐oil variables on sectoral performance. World oil prices affect economic sector outputs symmetrically or linearly. The service sector is found to be the most vulnerable sector to oil price shocks. The absence of asymmetry can be attributed to increased competition in the Philippines’ domestic oil industry brought about by oil market deregulation. Improving the energy mix and reducing oil intensity is vital to offset any oil price shock transmission to an oil‐importing economy like the Philippines.

Abstract In the summer of 1989 a survey was conducted to collect data on household-energy consumption in Indian cities. The survey was conducted in three urban areas of varying sizes. The end-uses considered were cooking, water heating, lighting, air cooling, entertainment, cold storage, and washing/laundry. The surveys involved examination of the types and quantities of energy used to satisfy each of these services. The survey sample in each of the three cities was broken down by income group, allowing for a careful examination of the influence of household income on lifestyle patterns and related energy use choices. Among the houses surveyed were 75 households in Pune, India, that took part in a 1982 household energy study as well. The re-surveying process allowed for an analysis of longitudinal changes in residential energy use. Based on the survey findings, a number of recommendations are provided for improving the provision and use of energy in urban households in India.

Brazil uses taxes, subsidies, and blending mandates as policy instruments to manage and stabilize its transportation fuel markets. The fuel sector has been very dynamic in recent years due to frequent policy adjustments and variable market conditions. In this paper, we use a price endogenous economic simulation model to analyze the impacts of such policy adjustments under various challenging conditions in the global ethanol and sugar markets. Our analysis specifically focuses on Brazilian producers' supply responses, consumers' driving demand and fuel choice, ethanol trade, land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and social welfare. The model results show that (i) under a low ethanol blending rate, conventional vehicles would be driven significantly less while flex-fuel and ethanol-dedicated vehicles would not be affected significantly; (ii) lowering the fuel taxes adversely affects the competitiveness of sugarcane ethanol against gasoline blends, thus lowering producers' surplus; and (iii) while a reduction in fuel taxes is advantageous in terms of overall social welfare, it has serious environmental impacts by increasing the GHG emissions from transportation fuels consumed in Brazil.

Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agricultural yield, violent conflict, or sea-level rise), few address the possibility of direct impacts operating through human physiology. This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance. A key prediction is that effective labor supply – defined as a composite of labor hours, task performance, and effort – is decreasing in temperature deviations from the biological optimum. We use country-level panel data on population-weighted average temperature and income (1950-2005), to illustrate the potential magnitude of the effect. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find that hotter-than-average years are associated with lower output per capita for already hot countries and higher output per capita for cold countries: approximately 3%-4% in both directions. We then use household data on air conditioning and heating expenditures from the US to provide further evidence in support of a physiologically based causal mechanism. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.

Carbon emission reduction is a long-term strategy for China to promote its economic and social development. However, emission reduction often involves a huge amount of technological investment, which could vary substantially across different provinces due to their discrepancy in economic and technological development levels. Emission trading as a useful policy instrument may help different provinces achieve their emission reduction targets cost-effectively. This paper models the economic performance of an interprovincial emission reduction quota trading scheme in China. The marginal abatement cost curve of each province in China is first estimated. A nonlinear programming model is further developed to evaluate the economic performance of interprovincial emission reduction quota trading. Five equity criteria are used to conduct the initial allocation of emission reduction targets between different provinces. Our modeling results show that China’s total emission abatement cost could decrease by over 40% through implementing such an interprovincial emission reduction quota trading scheme. Of the five alternative criteria, the CO2 emissions and population criteria look fairer and are recommended for use in the initial allocation of CO2 emission reduction targets.