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Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

Abstract This paper investigates the optimal choice of building energy efficiency (BEE) standard in the context of centralised urban district heating system in northern China. By employing a techno-economic analysis approach, we demonstrate that the current BEE standard implemented in the Chinese cities should be tightened further in order to achieve a socially optimal level. Without considering the externality costs associated with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, current BEE standards need to be upgraded to the equivalent level of French RT2005 standard coupled with a properly designed district coal-fired Combined Heat and Power (CHP). In contrast, the equivalent efficiency standard of Swedish building code is preferably to be implemented in the case of explicit carbon emission restriction as long as the marginal cost of carbon emission (carbon price) is sufficiently high. The fuel-switching policy (from coal to natural gas) in the urban district heating system would result in significant increase in overall costs if the BEE upgrade is not taken into account simultaneously. It is also found that BEE improvements in northern Chinese cities are more cost-effective than investing in low-carbon technologies such as wind power or Carbon Capture and storage in the EU and US with regard to CO2 emissions mitigation.

Abstract. An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Predicting likely species responses to an alteration of their local environment is key to decision‐making in resource management, ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation practice in the face of global human‐induced habitat disturbance. This is especially true for forest trees which are a dominant life form on Earth and play a central role in supporting diverse communities and structuring a wide range of ecosystems. In Europe, it is expected that most forest tree species will not be able to migrate North fast enough to follow the estimated temperature isocline shift given current predictions for rapid climate warming. In this context, a topical question for forest genetics research is to quantify the ability for tree species to adapt locally to strongly altered environmental conditions (Kremer et al. ). Identifying environmental factors driving local adaptation is, however, a major challenge for evolutionary biology and ecology in general but is particularly difficult in trees given their large individual and population size and long generation time. Empirical evaluation of local adaptation in trees has traditionally relied on fastidious long‐term common garden experiments (provenance trials) now supplemented by reference genome sequence analysis for a handful of economically valuable species. However, such resources have been lacking for most tree species despite their ecological importance in supporting whole ecosystems. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, De Kort et al. () provide original and convincing empirical evidence of local adaptation to temperature in black alder, Alnus glutinosa L. Gaertn, a surprisingly understudied keystone species supporting riparian ecosystems. Here, De Kort et al. () use an innovative empirical approach complementing state‐of‐the‐art landscape genomics analysis of A. glutinosa populations sampled in natura across a regional climate gradient with phenotypic trait assessment in a common garden experiment (Fig. ). By combining the two methods, De Kort et al. () were able to detect unequivocal association between temperature and phenotypic traits such as leaf size as well as with genetic loci putatively under divergent selection for temperature. The research by De Kort et al. () provides valuable insight into adaptive response to temperature variation for an ecologically important species and demonstrates the usefulness of an integrated approach for empirical evaluation of local adaptation in nonmodel species (Sork et al. ).

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

AbstractThe European Union aspires to reducing the import dependency of raw materials that are critical to its industries. In this respect, mineral resource information and data sharing by European Geological Surveys is crucial. In 2010, the European Commission identified 14 critical non-energy non-agricultural raw materials. This list was updated in 2014. This article presents the Critical Raw Material (CRM) Map of Europe produced by EuroGeoSurvey's Mineral Resources Expert Group. This map shows European mineral deposits from the EU FP7 ProMine project database, as containing critical commodities, according to the list of CRM published by the European Commission.