AbstractBACKGROUNDOmmatissus lybicus de Bergevin (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) (Dubas Bug, DB) is an insect pest attacking date palms. It occurs in Arab countries including Oman. In this paper, the logistic, ordinary least square, and geographical weighted regressions were applied to model the absence/presence and density of DB against climate factors. A method is proposed for modelling spatially correlated prorations annually over the study period, based on annual and seasonal outbreaks. The historical 2006–2015 climate data were obtained from weather stations located in nine governorates in northern Oman, while dataloggers collected the 2017 microclimate data in eight of these nine governorates.RESULTSLogistic regression model showed the percentages of correctly predicted values using a cut‐off point of 0.5 were 90%, 88% and 84%, indicating good classification accuracy. OLS and GWR models showed an overall trend of strong linear correlation between DB infestation levels and short‐ and long‐term climate factors. The three models suggested that precipitation, elevation, temperature, humidity, wind direction and wind speed are important in influencing the spatial distribution and the presence/absence of dense DB populations.CONCLUSIONThe results provide an improved understanding of climate factors that impact DB's spread and is considered useful for managing DB infestations in date palm plantations. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry