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Expert perspectives on the wind plant of the future

doi: 10.1002/we.2735
AbstractWind power technology has changed rapidly in recent years. Technology innovation, evolving power markets, and competing land and ocean uses continue to influence the design and operation of wind turbines and plants. Anticipating these trends and their impact on future facilities can inform commercial strategies and research priorities. Drawing from a recent survey of 140 of the world's foremost wind experts, we identify expectations of future wind plant design in 2035, both for onshore and offshore wind. Experts anticipate continued growth in turbine size, to 5.5 (onshore) and 17 MW (offshore), with plants located in increasingly less favorable wind and siting regimes. They expect plant sizes of 1,100 MW for fixed‐bottom and 600 MW for floating offshore wind. Experts forecast enhanced grid‐system value from wind through significant to widespread use of larger rotors, hybrid projects with batteries and hydrogen production, and more. To explain experts' perspectives on future plant design and operation, we identify five mechanisms: economies of unit, plant, and resource scale; grid‐system value economies; and production efficiencies. We characterize learning effects as a moderating influence on the strength of these mechanisms. In combination, experts predict that these design choices support levelized cost of energy reductions of 27% (onshore) and 17%–35% (floating and fixed‐bottom offshore) by 2035 compared to today, while enhancing wind energy's grid service offerings. Our findings provide a much‐needed benchmark for representing future wind technologies in power sector models and address a critical research gap by explaining the economics behind wind energy design choices.
- University of California System United States
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory United States
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory United States
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory United States
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory United States
690, Energy, technology foresight, Mechanical Engineering, value drivers, TJ807-830, wind farm design, cost drivers, Renewable energy sources, expert elicitation, Affordable and Clean Energy, wind, Interdisciplinary Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, optimization
690, Energy, technology foresight, Mechanical Engineering, value drivers, TJ807-830, wind farm design, cost drivers, Renewable energy sources, expert elicitation, Affordable and Clean Energy, wind, Interdisciplinary Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, optimization
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).25 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
