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Water Air & Soil Pollution
Article . 1994 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94...
Part of book or chapter of book . 1994 . Peer-reviewed
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Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios

Part 2: Computed scenarios
Authors: J. G. J. Olivier; A. M. C. Toet; J. Alcamo; Rik Leemans; Joseph Alcamo; Kees Klein Goldewijk; G.J. van den Born; +6 Authors

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios

Abstract

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a "Conventional Wisdom" scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the "Biofuel Crops" scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the "No Biofuels" scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the "Ocean Realignment" scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

Atmospheric Science, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), integrated models, Environmental Science(all), carbon cycle, SDG 13 - Climate Action, integrated assessment, Environmental Chemistry, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, global change, General Environmental Science, Water Science and Technology, Earth-Surface Processes, scenario analysis, Pollution, biofuels, climate change, General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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