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Climate Dynamics
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
ZENODO
Article . 2017
Data sources: ZENODO
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Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century

Authors: Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Markkanen, Tiina; Venäläinen, Ari; Räisänen, Petri; Peltola, Heli;

Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century

Abstract

Projections for near-surface soil moisture content in Europe for the 21st century were derived from simulations performed with 26 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered. Unlike in previous research in general, projections were calculated separately for all four calendar seasons. To make the moisture contents simulated by the various GCMs commensurate, the moisture data were normalized by the corresponding local maxima found in the output of each individual GCM. A majority of the GCMs proved to perform satisfactorily in simulating the geographical distribution of recent soil moisture in the warm season, the spatial correlation with an satellite-derived estimate varying between 0.4 and 0.8. In southern Europe, long-term mean soil moisture is projected to decline substantially in all seasons. In summer and autumn, pronounced soil drying also afflicts western and central Europe. In northern Europe, drying mainly occurs in spring, in correspondence with an earlier melt of snow and soil frost. The spatial pattern of drying is qualitatively similar for both RCP scenarios, but weaker in magnitude under RCP4.5. In general, those GCMs that simulate the largest decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature and solar radiation tend to produce the most severe soil drying. Concurrently with the reduction of time-mean soil moisture, episodes with an anomalously low soil moisture, occurring once in 10 years in the recent past simulations, become far more common. In southern Europe by the late 21st century under RCP8.5, such events would be experienced about every second year.

Country
Finland
Keywords

CMIP5 GCMs, model validation, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), climate change, European Comission, near-surface soil moisture

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
153
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green