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Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco

التغيرات في درجات الحرارة المتوسطة والمتطرفة وأحداث هطول الأمطار من مجموعات متعددة النماذج مرجحة مختلفة على النصف الشمالي من المغرب
Authors: Saloua Balhane; Fatima Driouech; Omar Chafki; Rodrigo Manzanas; Abdelghani Chehbouni; Willfran Moufouma-Okia;

Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco

Abstract

AbstractInternal variability, multiple emission scenarios, and different model responses to anthropogenic forcing are ultimately behind a wide range of uncertainties that arise in climate change projections. Model weighting approaches are generally used to reduce the uncertainty related to the choice of the climate model. This study compares three multi-model combination approaches: a simple arithmetic mean and two recently developed weighting-based alternatives. One method takes into account models’ performance only and the other accounts for models’ performance and independence. The effect of these three multi-model approaches is assessed for projected changes of mean precipitation and temperature as well as four extreme indices over northern Morocco. We analyze different widely used high-resolution ensembles issued from statistical (NEXGDDP) and dynamical (Euro-CORDEX and bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX) downscaling. For the latter, we also investigate the potential added value that bias adjustment may have over the raw dynamical simulations. Results show that model weighting can significantly reduce the spread of the future projections increasing their reliability. Nearly all model ensembles project a significant warming over the studied region (more intense inland than near the coasts), together with longer and more severe dry periods. In most cases, the different weighting methods lead to almost identical spatial patterns of climate change, indicating that the uncertainty due to the choice of multi-model combination strategy is nearly negligible.

Countries
France, Spain, Spain
Keywords

Atmospheric Science, 550, Extremes, Climate Change and Variability Research, Precipitation, 551, Weighting, Oceanography, Range (aeronautics), Downscaling, Climate change, Atmospheric Dynamics, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Model weighting, Statistics, Temperature, Mean radiant temperature, Geology, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Morocco, Physical Sciences, Medicine, Radiology, Probabilistic Forecasting, Composite material, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Climate model, Environmental science, Climate models, [SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics], FOS: Economics and business, Projected uncertainty, Meteorology, FOS: Mathematics, Econometrics, Forcing (mathematics), FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, NEXGDDP, Materials science, Mesoscale Modeling, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Environmental Science, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, [SDU.STU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Euro-CORDEX, Mathematics, Climate Modeling

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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