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Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan

AbstractRunoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax,Tmin,Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series.Tmaxrevealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed thatTminexhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms ofTmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research China (People's Republic of)
- Yunnan Open University China (People's Republic of)
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Nepal
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research China (People's Republic of)
- Pakistan Meteorological Department Pakistan
Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, Physical geography, Time series, Climate Change and Variability Research, Oceanography, Environmental science, Indus, Meteorology, Snow, Series (stratigraphy), FOS: Mathematics, Climate change, Glacier, Biology, Water Science and Technology, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Ecology, Maximum temperature, Global warming, Statistics, Paleontology, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Surface runoff, Structural basin, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, FOS: Biological sciences, Physical Sciences, Environmental Science, Impacts of Climate Change on Glaciers and Water Availability, Mathematics, Climate Modeling
Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, Physical geography, Time series, Climate Change and Variability Research, Oceanography, Environmental science, Indus, Meteorology, Snow, Series (stratigraphy), FOS: Mathematics, Climate change, Glacier, Biology, Water Science and Technology, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Ecology, Maximum temperature, Global warming, Statistics, Paleontology, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Surface runoff, Structural basin, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, FOS: Biological sciences, Physical Sciences, Environmental Science, Impacts of Climate Change on Glaciers and Water Availability, Mathematics, Climate Modeling
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