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Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but plausible futures and identify potential pathways to visions of desirable conditions. However, a number of assumptions are usually made during this process, and one of the most substantial is that land managers display homogeneous, economically rational behaviour across space, time and scenarios. This assumption precludes the consideration of important behavioural effects and limits understanding of the feasibility of scenario-based pathways towards visions. We use an agent-based land use model to examine broad forms of behavioural variation within defined scenarios in theoretical contexts. We relate model results to stakeholder-developed visions of desired future land systems in Europe and so assess the scope for behavioural pathways towards these normative futures. We find that the achievability of visions is determined by internal inconsistencies, scenario conditions and the multifunctional potential of land uses, with a fundamental tension between large-scale land use productivity and small-scale diversity (i.e. land sparing and land sharing). Trading conditions affect this balance most strongly and represent an obvious target for governance strategies concerned with achieving multi- functional land use. However, within specific circumstances behavioural effects are strong and diverse, and can accelerate, counteract or mitigate the impacts of other drivers. This suggests that visions for the land system should focus on trade-offs, identifying those that are least strong, most acceptable and most susceptible to adjustment through behavioural or other influences.
- University of Edinburgh United Kingdom
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Germany
- School of GeoSciences The University of Edinburgh United Kingdom
- School of GeoSciences The University of Edinburgh United Kingdom
Global and Planetary Change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, 550, ddc:550, Scenario, Stakeholder engagement, Agent-based modelling, Earth sciences, Multifunctional, Land use, Climate change, Agent based modelling, scenario, climate change, land use, multifunctional, stakeholder engagement
Global and Planetary Change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, 550, ddc:550, Scenario, Stakeholder engagement, Agent-based modelling, Earth sciences, Multifunctional, Land use, Climate change, Agent based modelling, scenario, climate change, land use, multifunctional, stakeholder engagement
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).32 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
