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Regional Environmental Change
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Regional Environmental Change
Article
License: CC BY
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Past, present, and future geographic range of an oro-Mediterranean Tertiary relict: The juniperus drupacea case study

Authors: Łukasz Walas; Karolina Sobierajska; Tolga Ok; Ali A. Dönmez; Salih S. Kanoğlu; Magda Bou Dagher-Kharrat; Bouchra Douaihy; +4 Authors

Past, present, and future geographic range of an oro-Mediterranean Tertiary relict: The juniperus drupacea case study

Abstract

Juniperus drupacea is a unique relict species found in the mountains of southern Greece, southern Turkey, and western Syria and Lebanon. The aim of this study was to describe the natural range of this juniper by determining the current locations of its populations and to predict a theoretical range for the species based on current, past, and future climatic conditions. We used data from the literature, herbarium materials, and our unpublished field notes (about 500 georeferenced points in total) to determine the current natural distribution of J. drupacea (realized niche). To predict suitable conditions with the program MaxEnt, we used data from the WordClim database, which allowed estimation of the potential niche. The potential niche of J. drupacea was much wider during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and was severely restricted during the Eemian interglacial period. Depending on the climate scenario, this species could become endangered in the future due to climate changes. Considering the relatively restricted geographic range of J. drupacea and the decreasing numbers of localities where it is found, conservation strategies should be adopted to allow for preservation of its genetic and morphological diversity. The study was financially supported by the Institute of Dendrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland, and by the Polish Ministry of Science under grant no. NN303153037.

Countries
Spain, Turkey, Turkey
Keywords

Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, //metadata.un.org/sdg/13 [http], Biodiversity, Relict tree, Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss, Niche modelling, //metadata.un.org/sdg/15 [http], Climate change, Niche modeling

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
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29
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37
79
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