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Local-global methods for generalised solar irradiance forecasting

handle: 10481/91409
Local-global methods for generalised solar irradiance forecasting
AbstractFor efficient operation, solar power operators often require generation forecasts for multiple sites with varying data availability. Many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production formulate the problem as a time-series, using current observations to generate forecasts. This necessitates a real-time data stream and enough historical observations at every location for these methods to be deployed. In this paper, we propose the use of Global methods to train generalised models. Using data from 20 locations distributed throughout the UK, we show that it is possible to learn models without access to data for all locations, enabling them to generate forecasts for unseen locations. We show a single Global model trained on multiple locations can produce more consistent and accurate results across locations. Furthermore, by leveraging weather observations and measurements from other locations we show it is possible to create models capable of accurately forecasting irradiance at locations without any real-time data. We apply our approaches to both classical and state-of-the-art Machine Learning methods, including a Transformer architecture. We compare models using satellite imagery or point observations (temperature, pressure, etc.) as weather data. These methods could facilitate planning and optimisation for both newly deployed solar farms and domestic installations from the moment they come online.
- University of Granada (UGR) Spain
- University of Nottingham United Kingdom
- University of Granada Spain
- Nottingham Trent University United Kingdom
- University of Granada (UGR) Spain
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Deep learning, Time series forecast, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Solar irradiance forecast
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Deep learning, Time series forecast, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Solar irradiance forecast
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