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How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change

AbstractImportance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.
- Michigan State University United States
- Nottingham Trent University United Kingdom
- Chinese Academy of Sciences China (People's Republic of)
- Leibniz Association Germany
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Germany
550, Model weighting, River discharge projections, Model performance, 550 Geowissenschaften, Global hydrological models, Credibility of projections, ddc:551.48, Climate change, Model evaluation, ddc: ddc:550
550, Model weighting, River discharge projections, Model performance, 550 Geowissenschaften, Global hydrological models, Credibility of projections, ddc:551.48, Climate change, Model evaluation, ddc: ddc:550
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).33 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 66 download downloads 33 - 66views33downloads
Data source Views Downloads edoc-Server. Open-Access-Publikationsserver der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin 66 33


