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Earth Systems and Environment
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Earth Systems and Environment
Article
License: CC BY
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https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/hn...
Other literature type . 2021
Data sources: Datacite
https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/n3...
Other literature type . 2021
Data sources: Datacite
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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

التغيرات المتوقعة في المناخ المتطرف باستخدام محاكاة CMIP6 عبر مناطق SREX
Authors: Muhammad Ismail; Enda O’Brien; Irfan Ur Rashid; Mansour Almazroui; Mansour Almazroui; Fahad Saeed; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; +6 Authors

Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

Keywords

Atmospheric Science, Monsoon, Atmospheric sciences, Climate Change and Variability Research, Precipitation, Coupled model intercomparison project, Oceanography, Climate model, Flooding (psychology), Environmental science, Meteorology, Extreme Events, Climate change, Psychology, Biology, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Tropics, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Extratropical cyclone, Earth and Planetary Sciences, FOS: Psychology, Climate extremes, Fishery, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Global Methane Emissions and Impacts, Psychotherapist, Probabilistic Forecasting, Precipitation Extremes, Climate Modeling

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    141
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
141
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 0.1%
hybrid