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Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems

Authors: Thomas Heckelei; Irina V. Bezlepkina; Olivier Therond; Martin K. van Ittersum; Erling Andersen; Frank Ewert; Frank Ewert;

Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems

Abstract

Agricultural systems and problems of sustainability are complex, covering a range of organisational levels and spatial and temporal scales. Integrated assessment (IA) and modelling (IAM) is an attempt to capture complex multi-scale problems. Scale changes and model linking methods (referred to as scaling methods) are important in dealing with these problems but they are often not well understood. The present study aims to analyse scaling methods used in the recently developed multi-scale IA model SEAMLESS-IF which is applied to two case studies of complex agri-environmental problems. The analysis is based on a classification of up- and down-scaling methods which is extended for the purpose of this study. Our analysis shows that scale changes refer to different spatial, temporal and functional scales with changes in extent, resolution, and coverage rate. Accordingly, SEAMLESS-IF uses a number of different scaling methods including data extrapolation, aggregation and disaggregation, sampling, nested simulation and employs descriptive response functions and technical coefficients derived from explanatory models. Despite the satisfactory results obtained from SEAMLESS-IF, a comparative quantitative analysis of alternative scaling methods is still pending and requires further attention. Improved integration of scaling methods may also help to overcome limitations of IA models related to high data demand, complexity of models and scaling methods considered, and the accumulation of uncertainty due to the use of multiple models. In the case studies, the most challenging scaling problem refers to the appropriate consideration of the farm level as intermediate level between the field and market levels. Among the scaling methods analysed, summary models are hardly applied. This is because they are often unavailable due to limited systems understanding and because they may differ depending on the question at stake. The classification of scaling methods used has been helpful to structure this analysis.

Countries
Netherlands, Denmark, France
Keywords

productivity, management options, LEI Natuurlijke Hulpbronnen, framework, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, complex systems, agriculture, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, impact assessment, Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen, variability, scenarios, scaling methods, sustainability, 004, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, climate-change, tools, ecosystems, environment, performance

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    146
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
146
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%