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A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data

Authors: Philip K. Thornton; Jetse J. Stoorvogel; John M. Antle; Roberto O. Valdivia; Mario Herrero; Lieven Claessens; Lieven Claessens;

A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in thecontext of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data demands includingsite-specific bio-physical and economic data are an important constraint. This paper applies a newapproach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment(TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses thekinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where semi-subsistencesystems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible, generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios.

Countries
United States, Netherlands, France, France
Keywords

western kenya, Leerstoelgroep Landdynamiek, farming systems, impacts, agriculture, Leerstoelgroep Ontwikkelingseconomie, technology adoption, crop yield, sustainability, climate change, africa, 306, developing-countries, systems, ecosystem services

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    121
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
121
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green