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Applied Energy
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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A novel methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models based on interpretable machine learning

Authors: Chengchu Yan; Fu Xiao; Cheng Fan; Cheng Fan; Zhengdao Li; Jiayuan Wang; Chengliang Liu;

A novel methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models based on interpretable machine learning

Abstract

Abstract The development of advanced data-driven approaches for building energy management is becoming increasingly essential in the era of big data. Machine learning techniques have gained great popularity in predictive modeling due to their excellence in capturing nonlinear and complicated relationships. However, it is a big challenge for building professionals to fully understand the inference mechanism learnt and put trust into the prediction made, as the models developed are typically of high complexity and low interpretability. To enhance the practical value of advanced machine learning techniques in the building field, this study proposes a comprehensive methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models. The methodology is developed based on the framework of interpretable machine learning. It can help building professionals to understand the inference mechanism learnt, e.g., why a certain prediction is made and what are the supporting and conflicting evidences towards the prediction. A novel metric, i.e., trust, is proposed as an alternative approach other than conventional accuracy metrics to evaluate model performance. The methodology has been validated based on actual building operational data. The results obtained are valuable for the development of intelligent and user-friendly building management systems.

Keywords

Interpretable machine learning, Building energy management, Data-driven models, Big data analytics, Building operational performance

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    153
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
153
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green