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Stochastic nonlinear modelling and application of price-based energy flexibility

Authors: Henrik Madsen; Henrik Madsen; Carsten Skovmose Kallesøe; Jaume Palmer Real; Bianca Howard; Rune Grønborg Junker; Rui Amaral Lopes;

Stochastic nonlinear modelling and application of price-based energy flexibility

Abstract

If CO2-emissions are to be reduced, the shares of renewable energy sources will have to be significantly increased. However, energy flexibility is required to cope with the increased share of renewable energy. Utilising it necessitates mathematical models of the operational response of energy flexible consumers. In this paper we present an accurate and general dynamic model of energy flexibility based on stochastic differential equations. The intuitive interpretation of the parameters is explained, to show the generality of the proposed model. To validate the approach, the parameters are estimated for three water towers and three buildings controlled by economic model predictive controllers. The model is then used to offer the energy flexibility on the current electricity market of Scandinavia, Nord Pool, using the so called “flexi orders”. Finally, the energy flexibility is used by controlling the demand of the water towers indirectly, through price signals designed based on the proposed model. Compared to having perfect foresight of electricity prices and future demand, between 63% and 98% of the potential savings were obtained in for these case studies. This shows that even without direct control of energy flexible systems, most of the potential can be reached under the current market conditions.

Countries
Denmark, Portugal
Keywords

Demand response, Mechanical Engineering, Flexibility function, Building and Construction, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy; name=SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Energy(all), Stochastic differential equations, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Energy flexibility, State space model

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
36
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid