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Influence and seepage: An evidence-resistant minority can affect public opinion and scientific belief formation


Stephan Lewandowsky

Jens K. Madsen
Influence and seepage: An evidence-resistant minority can affect public opinion and scientific belief formation
Some well-established scientific findings may be rejected by vocal minorities because the evidence is in conflict with political views or economic interests. For example, the tobacco industry denied the medical consensus on the harms of smoking for decades, and the clear evidence about human-caused climate change is currently being rejected by many politicians and think tanks that oppose regulatory action. We present an agent-based model of the processes by which denial of climate change can occur, how opinions that run counter to the evidence can affect the scientific community, and how denial can alter the public discourse. The model involves an ensemble of Bayesian agents, representing the scientific community, that are presented with the emerging historical evidence of climate change and that also communicate the evidence to each other. Over time, the scientific community comes to agreement that the climate is changing. When a minority of agents is introduced that is resistant to the evidence, but that enter into the scientific discussion, the simulated scientific community still acquires firm knowledge but consensus formation is delayed. When both types of agents are communicating with the general public, the public remains ambivalent about the reality of climate change. The model captures essential aspects of the actual evolution of scientific and public opinion during the last 4 decades.
- Harvard University United States
- University of Bristol United Kingdom
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- University of London United Kingdom
- Middlesex University United Kingdom
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog, Consensus, Climate Change, Communication, Bayes Theorem, Models, Psychological, TeDCog, agent-based models, science denial, climate change, Attitude, Memory, Public Opinion, Humans, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog, Consensus, Climate Change, Communication, Bayes Theorem, Models, Psychological, TeDCog, agent-based models, science denial, climate change, Attitude, Memory, Public Opinion, Humans, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory
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citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).32 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 8 - 8views
Data source Views Downloads Oxford University Research Archive 8 0

