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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Computer Science Rev...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Computer Science Review
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Energy price prediction using data-driven models: A decade review

Authors: Hongfang Lu; Xin Ma; Minda Ma; Senlin Zhu;

Energy price prediction using data-driven models: A decade review

Abstract

Abstract The accurate prediction of energy price is critical to the energy market orientation, and it can provide a reference for policymakers and market participants. In practice, energy prices are affected by external factors, and their accurate prediction is challenging. This paper provides a systematic decade review of data-driven models for energy price prediction. Energy prices include four types: natural gas, crude oil, electricity, and carbon. Through the screening, 171 publications are reviewed in detail from the aspects of the basic model, the data cleaning method, and optimizer. Publishing time, model structure, prediction accuracy, prediction horizon, and input variables for energy price prediction are discussed. The main contributions and findings of this paper are as follows: (1) basic prediction models for energy price, data cleaning methods, and optimizers are classified and described; (2) the structure of the prediction model is finely classified, and it is inferred that the hybrid model and prediction architecture with multiple techniques are the focus of research and the development direction in the future; (3) root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error are the three most frequently used error indicators, and the maximum mean absolute percentage error is less than 0.2; (4) the ranges of data size and data division ratio for energy price prediction in different horizons are given, the proportion of the test set is usually in the range of 0.05–0.35; (5) the input variables for energy price prediction are summarized; (6) the data cleaning method has a more significant role in improving the accuracy of energy price prediction than the optimizer.

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    58
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
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    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
58
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%