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Short term solar irradiance forecasting using sky images based on a hybrid CNN–MLP model

Authors: Omaima El Alani; Mounir Abraim; Hicham Ghennioui; Abdellatif Ghennioui; Ilyass Ikenbi; Fatima-Ezzahra Dahr;

Short term solar irradiance forecasting using sky images based on a hybrid CNN–MLP model

Abstract

High penetration of photovoltaics (PV) has been observed in the energy market over the last decade. However, its integration into electrical grids is challenging, as solar energy is highly fluctuating given its dependence on different weather variables. Consequently, short-term forecasting of solar irradiance provides a pivotal solution to ensure optimal use of the produced energy and reduce its uncertainty. This study proposes a hybrid convolutional neural network and Multilayer perceptron (CNN–MLP) model to forecast the global irradiance 15 min ahead. The model uses images from a hemispherical sky imager, time series of GHI, and weather variables collected from a ground meteorological station in Morocco. The evaluation of the proposed model under clear, mixed, and overcast days shows that the proposed model performs better than the persistence model. The root mean square error (RMSE) varies between 13.05 W/m2 and 49.16 W/m2 for CNN–MLP and between 45.76 W/m2 and 114.19 W/m2 for persistence. The coefficient of determination (R2) varies between 0.99 and 0.94 for the MLP–CNN and between 0.98 and 0.79 for persistence. The results show that the proposed model could be an appropriate choice for short-term forecasting even under cloudy conditions.

Keywords

Artificial intelligence, Short term forecasting, TK1-9971, Solar irradiance, Sky images, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    63
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
63
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
gold