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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Energy Conversion an...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Conversion and Management
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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A day-ahead PV power forecasting method based on LSTM-RNN model and time correlation modification under partial daily pattern prediction framework

Authors: Fei Wang; Zhao Zhen; Zhao Zhen; Zhiming Xuan; Kangping Li; Tieqiang Wang; Min Shi;

A day-ahead PV power forecasting method based on LSTM-RNN model and time correlation modification under partial daily pattern prediction framework

Abstract

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is an effective means to realize solar energy utilization. Due to the natural characteristics of random fluctuations in solar energy, the applications of PV power such as grid-connected PV power plant, distributed PVs, and building integrated PVs will introduce new characteristics to the generation and load side of the power grid. Therefore, accurate day-ahead PV power forecasting is of great significance for enabling grid manager to achieve PV power output data in advance and mitigate the influence of random fluctuations. To tackle the deficiencies of conventional artificial intelligence (AI) modeling methods such as overfitting problem and insufficient generalization ability to complex nonlinear modeling, a day-ahead PV power forecasting model assembled by fusing deep learning modeling and time correlation principles under a partial daily pattern prediction (PDPP) framework is proposed. First, an independent day-ahead PV power forecasting model based on long-short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) is established. Second, a modification method is proposed to update the forecasting results of LSTM-RNN model based on time correlation principles regarding different patterns of PV power in the forecasting day. Third, a partial daily pattern prediction (PDPP) framework is proposed to provide accurate daily pattern prediction information of particular days, which is used to guide the modification parameters. Simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method with time correlation modification (TCM) is more accurate than the individual LSTM-RNN model, and the performance of the forecasting model can be further improved for those days with accurate daily pattern predictions under the proposed PDPP framework.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
490
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 0.01%