Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation
Copyright policy )Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation
We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron. After optimizing our architecture with ALADIN and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model ANN/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the na��ve persistence predictor. Note that in the stand alone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed
Energy (2012) 1
Stationarity, FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Physical sciences, [INFO.INFO-NE]Computer Science [cs]/Neural and Evolutionary Computing [cs.NE], INFO_NE] Computer Science/Neural and Evolutionary Computing [[INFO], ES] Sciences de l'environnement/Environnement et Société [[SDE], [INFO.INFO-NE] Computer Science/Neural and Evolutionary Computing, ES] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [[SDE], Neural and Evolutionary Computing (cs.NE), Artificial Neural Networks, hybrid, Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing, Time Series forecasting, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, INFO_NE] Informatique/Réseau de neurones [[INFO], ARMA, Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
Stationarity, FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Physical sciences, [INFO.INFO-NE]Computer Science [cs]/Neural and Evolutionary Computing [cs.NE], INFO_NE] Computer Science/Neural and Evolutionary Computing [[INFO], ES] Sciences de l'environnement/Environnement et Société [[SDE], [INFO.INFO-NE] Computer Science/Neural and Evolutionary Computing, ES] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [[SDE], Neural and Evolutionary Computing (cs.NE), Artificial Neural Networks, hybrid, Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing, Time Series forecasting, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, INFO_NE] Informatique/Réseau de neurones [[INFO], ARMA, Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
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