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Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Research , Journal , Conference object , Preprint 01 Nov 2008Embargo end date: 07 Jan 2011 United Kingdom, France Publisher:Elsevier BVJournal:Energy Policy, volume 36, pages 4,205-4,216 (issn: 0301-4215,

Authors: Méjean, Aurélie; Hope, Chris;

doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.023 , 10.17863/cam.5269

Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

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Abstract

High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of non-conventional oil, including the role of learning-by-doing in driving down costs. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of both learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying bitumen, which can then be upgraded into synthetic crude oil, a substitute to conventional oil. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of supplying bitumen from Canadian oil sands deposits, with a 90% confidence interval of $7-12 in 2030, and $6-15 in 2060 (2005 US$). The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined, with the minimum supply cost, the learning rate (LR), and the depletion curve exponent having the largest influence. Over time, the influence of the LR on the supply costs decreases, while the influence of the depletion curve exponent increases.

Countries

United Kingdom, France

Related Organizations

University of Cambridge
United Kingdom
École des Ponts ParisTech
France
French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation
France
Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
France

Keywords

[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, JEL : [, JEL : ], 338, Non-conventional oil, [ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, Climate change, [ SHS.GESTION ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Technological change, Uncertainty, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q47 - Energy Forecasting, Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q55 - Technological Innovation [JEL], [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Exhaustible resources, Climate change; Non-conventional oil; Exhaustible resources; Technological change; Uncertainty, [SHS.GESTION]Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q55 - Technological Innovation, Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q47 - Energy Forecasting [JEL], [SHS.GESTION] Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration, jel: jel:Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q47 - Energy Forecasting, jel: jel:Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q55 - Technological Innovation, jel: jel:Q42, jel: jel:C15, jel: jel:Q55, jel: jel:Q32

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