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The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy–environment–economy CGE model

This paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macroeconomic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003-2006 period. The objective is twofold : first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parametrization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms - and policy action - can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies.
- French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation France
- École Normale Supérieure France
- Instituto United States
- École des Ponts ParisTech France
- École Nationale de la Météorologie France
[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, 330, Modèle global d'équilibre général calculable, 339, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, [ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, choc pétrolier, ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances [[SHS], Oil shock, Model validation, Modèle global d'équilibre général calculable,choc pétrolier,validation de modèle,Global CGE model,Oil shock,Model validation, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Global CGE model,Oil shock,Model validation, ECO] Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances [[SHS], validation de modèle, Global CGE model, [ SDE.ES ] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society
[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, 330, Modèle global d'équilibre général calculable, 339, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, [ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, choc pétrolier, ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances [[SHS], Oil shock, Model validation, Modèle global d'équilibre général calculable,choc pétrolier,validation de modèle,Global CGE model,Oil shock,Model validation, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Global CGE model,Oil shock,Model validation, ECO] Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances [[SHS], validation de modèle, Global CGE model, [ SDE.ES ] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).34 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
