Italy has witnessed an extraordinary growth in biogas generation from livestock effluents and agricultural activities in the last few years as well as a severe isomorphic process, leading to a market dominance of 999 kW power plants owned by “entrepreneurial farms”. Under the pressure of the economic crisis in the country, the Italian government has restructured renewable energy support schemes, introducing a new program in 2013. In this paper, the effects of the previous and current support schemes on the optimal plant size, feedstock mix and profitability were investigated by introducing a spatially explicit biogas supply chain optimization model, which accounts for different incentive structures. By applying the model to a regional case study, homogenization observed to date is recognized as a result of former incentive structures. Considerable reductions in local economic potentials for agricultural biogas power plants without external heat use, are estimated. New plants are likely to be manure-based and due to the lower energy density of such feedstock, wider supply chains are expected although optimal plant size will be smaller. The new support scheme will therefore most likely eliminate past distortions but also slow down investments in agricultural biogas plants.