Abstract Bavaria's energy policy seeks to increase the share of power supply from renewable sources related to on-farm energy production (agricultural biogas, wind- and solar energy) from currently 15% to more than 30% in 2021. It is therefore of particular interest for policy-makers to identify regional drivers of and barriers to this concept. The presented study addresses this issue and applies a spatial regression analysis to Bavaria’s 71 rural counties. The findings indicate significant impacts of technological regional transformation ability, agricultural structure (degree of professionalization and consolidation of organic farming) and neighborhood effects. This is in contrast to most geographical factors, which seem to be of minor relevance.