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Model-based policymaking or policy-based modelling? How energy models and energy policy interact

Authors: Süsser, Diana; Ceglarz, Andrzej; Gaschnig, Hannes; Stavrakas, Vassilis; Flamos, Alexandros; Giannakidis, George; Lilliestam, Johan;

Model-based policymaking or policy-based modelling? How energy models and energy policy interact

Abstract

Abstract As energy models become more and more powerful, they are increasingly used to support energy policymaking. Although modelling has been used for policy advice for many years, there is little knowledge about how computer-based models actually influence policymaking, and to what extent policymakers influence the modelling process. Here, we empirically investigate (i) whether, how and when models influence the policymaking process, and (ii) whether, how and when policymakers influence the design, use and results of energy modelling. We analysed modelling and policy documents and conducted thirty-two interviews with different stakeholder groups in five different European jurisdictions. We show that models are used and have an impact on policymaking, especially by assessing impacts and supporting target setting, and sometimes by exploring policy options to reach these targets. We also show that policymakers influence models and modellers, especially by affecting data and assumptions, as well as the study scope, and by deciding how the modelling results are used. Hence, energy modelling and policymaking influence each other. In their exploratory mode, models can help investigate policy options and ambitious target setting. However, models can also be instrumentalised to justify already decided policies and targets. Our study implies that greater transparency, including open-source code and open data, and transdisciplinary elements in modelling could increase model legitimacy and impact in policymaking.

Country
Germany
Keywords

ddc: ddc:

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    81
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
81
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid