Abstract In East Africa, charcoal and firewood will remain the main sources of energy for cooking for the next two to three decades. Corresponding energy policies are needed that set proper priorities and improve the sustainability of the biomass energy sector. In this paper, we assess the supply potentials of wood-based and non-woody biomass fuels in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, and formulate recommendations to support sustainable biomass energy strategies in East Africa. We differentiate between tree types of potentials: the supply potential, the access potential, and the production potential. In order to calculate these potentials, we use a spatial Bayesian network that specifically enables accounting for uncertainties in the data and model. The main results show: (1) that agroforestry and small-scale mixed farming are the land use types with the highest potentials, (2) that firewood, charcoal, and biogas have substantial potential, whereas crop residue briquettes and Jatropha oil have only minor potentials, and (3) that such estimates can be subject to substantial uncertainties. Based on these results, we recommend that biomass energy strategies in East Africa consider the specific assets and limiting factors of the various fuel types and land use types in order to improve the supply of sustainable biomass cooking fuels.