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A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

handle: 1871/41222
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario " thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
- Free University of Amsterdam Pure VU Amsterdam Netherlands
- University of Maryland, College Park United States
- Wageningen University & Research Netherlands
- Electric Power Research Institute United States
- TU Wien Austria
Climate impacts, STABILIZATION, STRATEGIES, 550, 330, Mitigation, vulnerability, costs, adaptation, 333, Scenario analysis, Taverne, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, expert judgments, Integrated assessment, Adaptation, VULNERABILITY, Centrum Water en Klimaat - Climate Change, impact assessment, Milieukunde, stabilization, strategies, EXPERT JUDGMENTS, IMPACT ASSESSMENT, COSTS
Climate impacts, STABILIZATION, STRATEGIES, 550, 330, Mitigation, vulnerability, costs, adaptation, 333, Scenario analysis, Taverne, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, expert judgments, Integrated assessment, Adaptation, VULNERABILITY, Centrum Water en Klimaat - Climate Change, impact assessment, Milieukunde, stabilization, strategies, EXPERT JUDGMENTS, IMPACT ASSESSMENT, COSTS
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).245 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 1% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
