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The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa

This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.
- University of Sussex United Kingdom
- Kyung Hee University Korea (Republic of)
- Kyung Hee University Korea (Republic of)
Rainfall, Global and Planetary Change, Conflict, Ecology, Geography, Planning and Development, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Simultaneous equations model, Article, Africa, Food price, Climate change
Rainfall, Global and Planetary Change, Conflict, Ecology, Geography, Planning and Development, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Simultaneous equations model, Article, Africa, Food price, Climate change
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).156 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
