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A look into our future under climate change? Adaptation and migration intentions following extreme flooding in the Netherlands

Worldwide, increased flood risk from climate change prompts adaptive behavior of households in situ or through migration. Both can be sensible adaptation responses involving tradeoffs, and understanding their drivers is important for effective climate policy. However, in-situ adaptation and migration are rarely studied in combination and research on how extreme events trigger adaptive behavior in originally low-risk areas is lacking. We analyze survey data from residents affected by the extreme summer floods of 2021 in the Netherlands to contribute to fill this research gap. Our results indicate that current low levels of flood-related migration are likely to increase under higher flood risk. Undertaken in-situ adaptation may act as a barrier for further in-situ adaptation or migration behavior. Where in-situ adaptation is mostly related to cognitive factors including risk perceptions, response efficacy and self-efficacy, migration seems to be driven by flood-related emotions. Personal flood experience, mediated by worry, is strongly associated with both types of adaptive behavior. We discuss how policymakers can use these insights to guide and anticipate household adaptation behavior.
- Free University of Amsterdam Pure VU Amsterdam Netherlands
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands
- STICHTING DELTARES Netherlands
- STICHTING DELTARES Netherlands
- Utrecht University School of Law Netherlands
Protection motivation theory, Flooding, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Adaptation, Household survey, Migration, SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
Protection motivation theory, Flooding, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Adaptation, Household survey, Migration, SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).4 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
