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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao International Journa...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

Authors: Shu Fan; orcid Hamidreza Zareipour;
Hamidreza Zareipour
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Hamidreza Zareipour in OpenAIRE
orcid Pierre Pinson;
Pierre Pinson
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Pierre Pinson in OpenAIRE
orcid Tao Hong;
Tao Hong
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Tao Hong in OpenAIRE
Alberto Troccoli; orcid Rob J. Hyndman;
Rob J. Hyndman
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Rob J. Hyndman in OpenAIRE

Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

Abstract

The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or single-valued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.

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