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Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market

Abstract Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world’s fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones.
- Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology Singapore
- University of California System United States
- Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology Singapore
- Agency for Science, Technology and Research Singapore
- University of California, San Diego United States
Marketing, 330, Statistics, Numerical weather prediction, Real-time market, Operational forecasting, Solar forecasting, Econometrics, Ensemble
Marketing, 330, Statistics, Numerical weather prediction, Real-time market, Operational forecasting, Solar forecasting, Econometrics, Ensemble
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).94 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
