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Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations – A new generation of urban planning tools

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.
- Danish Hydraulic Institute Denmark
- Technical University of Denmark Denmark
- Monash University, Clayton campus Australia
- Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities Australia
- Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities Australia
550, Urban development, 710, Urban developmen, Agent-based modelling, Robust decision making, Flood risk, Climate change, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action; name=SDG 13 - Climate Action, Hydrodynamic modelling
550, Urban development, 710, Urban developmen, Agent-based modelling, Robust decision making, Flood risk, Climate change, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action; name=SDG 13 - Climate Action, Hydrodynamic modelling
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).159 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
