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A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Authors: Steven Strongin; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Edmond Totin; Daniela N. Schmidt; Friederike E. L. Otto; Katharine J. Mach; Andy Reisinger; +16 Authors

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Abstract

Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of climate change risk and of how multiple risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex climate change risks has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding the interactions that generate risk, including the role of adaptation and mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present a framework for three categories of increasingly complex climate change risk that focus on interactions among the multiple drivers of risk, as well as among multiple risks. A significant innovation is recognizing that risks can arise both from potential impacts due to climate change and from responses to climate change. This approach encourages thinking that traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and links physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. Advancing climate change risk assessment in these ways is essential for more informed decision making that reduces negative climate change impacts.

One Earth, 4 (4)

ISSN:2590-3322

Countries
Canada, Netherlands, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Switzerland, Australia
Keywords

Environmental Studies, CLIMATE RISKS, Complex climate change risks, 2300 General Environmental Science, Cascading risk, risk interactions, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, RISK ASSESSMENT, Aggregate risk, 910 Geography & travel, Green & Sustainable Science & Technology, Climate risk assessment, IPCC, 1901 Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), 10122 Institute of Geography, climate change, Climate change impacts and adaptation, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, HEAT STRESS, complex climate change risks, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, 330, aggregate risk, ITC-HYBRID, CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICY, Science & Technology, COMPLEXITY, SOUTH OF SAHARA, cascading risk, compound risk, Compound risk, risk drivers, risk response, Risk response, risk determinants, climate risk assessment, WATER SCARCITY, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT, Environmental Sciences

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    389
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.01%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
389
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 0.01%
Green
hybrid