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Corrective receding horizon EV charge scheduling using short-term solar forecasting

Abstract Forecast errors can cause sub-optimal solutions in resource planning optimization, yet they are usually modeled simplistically by statistical models, causing unrealistic impacts on the optimal solutions. In this paper, realistic forecast errors are prescribed, and a corrective approach is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of day-ahead persistence forecast error by short-term forecasts from a state-of-the-art sky imager system. These forecasts preserve the spatiotemporal dependence structure of forecast errors avoiding statistical approximations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested on a receding horizon quadratic program developed for valley filling the midday net load depression through electric vehicle charging. Throughout one month of simulations the ability to flatten net load is assessed under practical forecast accuracy levels achievable from persistence, sky imager and perfect forecasts. Compared to using day-ahead persistence solar forecasts, the proposed corrective approach using sky imager forecasts delivers a 25% reduction in the standard deviation of the daily net load. It is demonstrated that correcting day-ahead forecasts in real time with more accurate short-term forecasts benefits the valley filling solution.
- University of California, San Diego United States
- University of California System United States
- University of California, Berkeley United States
Energy, Affordable and Clean Energy, Mechanical Engineering, Solar forecast errors, Interdisciplinary Engineering, Electric vehicle charging, Optimal scheduling, Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Energy, Affordable and Clean Energy, Mechanical Engineering, Solar forecast errors, Interdisciplinary Engineering, Electric vehicle charging, Optimal scheduling, Electrical and Electronic Engineering
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).29 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
