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Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells

pmid: 30021275
Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070-2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure - such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill - will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently.
- University College London United Kingdom
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council United Kingdom
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- Historic Scotland United Kingdom
- School of Geography and the Environment Centre for the Environment Oxford University United Kingdom
690, Building performance, building moisture, risk assessment, sustainability, building performance, climate change, Sustainability, Climate change, Heritage conservation, heritage conservation, Risk assessment
690, Building performance, building moisture, risk assessment, sustainability, building performance, climate change, Sustainability, Climate change, Heritage conservation, heritage conservation, Risk assessment
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).55 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
