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Local-scale factors matter for tree cover modelling in Mediterranean drylands

Authors: Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Pinho, Pedro; Aleixo, Cristiana; Neves, Nuno; Branquinho, Cristina;

Local-scale factors matter for tree cover modelling in Mediterranean drylands

Abstract

Forests contribute directly to ecosystem structure and functioning, maintaining biodiversity, acting as a climate regulator and reducing desertification. To better manage forests, it is essential to have high-resolution forest models and appropriate spatial-explicit variables able to explain tree cover at different scales, including the management scale. Most tree cover models rely only on broad-scale variables (>500 m), such as macroclimate, while only few studies include also local-scale variables (<500 m). This study aimed to identify the importance of local-scale factors relative to broad-scale factors and identify the environmental variables at different scales that explain tree cover in oak woodlands in Mediterranean drylands. Sixty sites previously identified as being covered with Holm oak or Cork oak were stratified by precipitation. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, used here as a surrogate of tree cover, was modelled using simultaneously broad-scale factors (macroclimate) and local-scale factors (microclimatic and edaphic conditions). The percentage of variance explained by local- and broad-scale factors and the effect size of each environmental variable on tree cover was determined for the study site. It was found that local-scale factors and their interaction with broad-scale factors explained more variance than broad-scale factors alone. The most important local-scale factors explaining tree cover were elevation, potential solar radiation, used as a surrogate of microclimatic conditions, and wetness evaluated terrain used as an indicator of water flow accumulation. The main broad-scale factors were related to temperature and precipitation. The effect of some local-scale variables in tree cover seems to increase in areas where water as a limiting factor is more important. This study demonstrates the critical importance of including local-scale factors in multi-scale modelling of tree cover to obtain better predictions. These models will support well-suited forest management decisions, such as reforestation and afforestation plans to reverse evergreen oaks decline in Mediterranean drylands.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Climate Change, Water, Biodiversity, Microclimate, Quercus, Ecosystem

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
OpenAIRE UsageCountsDownloads provided by UsageCounts
11
Top 10%
Average
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57
62
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