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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Solar Energyarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Solar Energy
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Review of photovoltaic power forecasting

Authors: Antonanzas, J.; Osorio, N.; Escobar Moragas, Rodrigo; Urraca, R.; Martínez, F.; Antonanzas, F.;

Review of photovoltaic power forecasting

Abstract

Abstract Variability of solar resource poses difficulties in grid management as solar penetration rates rise continuously. Thus, the task of solar power forecasting becomes crucial to ensure grid stability and to enable an optimal unit commitment and economical dispatch. Several forecast horizons can be identified, spanning from a few seconds to days or weeks ahead, as well as spatial horizons, from single site to regional forecasts. New techniques and approaches arise worldwide each year to improve accuracy of models with the ultimate goal of reducing uncertainty in the predictions. This paper appears with the aim of compiling a large part of the knowledge about solar power forecasting, focusing on the latest advancements and future trends. Firstly, the motivation to achieve an accurate forecast is presented with the analysis of the economic implications it may have. It is followed by a summary of the main techniques used to issue the predictions. Then, the benefits of point/regional forecasts and deterministic/probabilistic forecasts are discussed. It has been observed that most recent papers highlight the importance of probabilistic predictions and they incorporate an economic assessment of the impact of the accuracy of the forecasts on the grid. Later on, a classification of authors according to forecast horizons and origin of inputs is presented, which represents the most up-to-date compilation of solar power forecasting studies. Finally, all the different metrics used by the researchers have been collected and some remarks for enabling a fair comparison among studies have been stated.

Country
Chile
Keywords

330, Energía solar - Aspectos económicos, Economía, Energía solar, Energía fotovoltaica

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    960
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
960
Top 0.1%
Top 0.1%
Top 0.1%