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Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptation options in South Africa

South Africa is likely to experience higher temperatures and less rainfall as a result of climate change. Resulting changes in regional water endowments and soil moisture will affect the productivity of cropland, leading to changes in food production and international trade patterns. High population growth elsewhere in Africa and Asia will put further pressure on natural resources and food security in South Africa. Based on four climate change scenarios from two general circulation models (CSIRO and MIROC) and two IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A1B, B1), this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on global agriculture and explores two alternative adaptation scenarios for South Africa. The analysis uses an updated GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. For South Africa to adapt to the adverse consequences of global climate change, it would require yield improvements of more than 20 percent over baseline investments in agricultural research and development. A doubling of irrigation development, on the other hand, will not be sufficient to reverse adverse impacts from climate change in the country.
- University of Sussex United Kingdom
- International Food Policy Research Institute United States
- Free University of Amsterdam Pure VU Amsterdam Netherlands
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy Germany
Planning and Development, Water resources, Geography, Agriculture, Computable general equilibrium, Africa, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, SDG 6 - Clean Water and Sanitation, Water Science and Technology
Planning and Development, Water resources, Geography, Agriculture, Computable general equilibrium, Africa, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, SDG 6 - Clean Water and Sanitation, Water Science and Technology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).98 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
