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Daily CO2 Emission Reduction Indicates the Control of Activities to Contain COVID-19 in China

Lockdown measures are essential to containing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but they will slow down economic growth by reducing industrial and commercial activities. However, the benefits of activity control from containing the pandemic have not been examined and assessed. Here we use daily carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction in China estimated from statistical data for energy consumption and satellite data for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) as an indicator for reduced activities consecutive to a lockdown. We perform a correlation analysis to show that a 1% day-1 decrease in the rate of COVID-19 cases is associated with a reduction in daily CO2 emissions of 0.22% ± 0.02% using statistical data for energy consumption relative to emissions without COVID-19, or 0.20% ± 0.02% using satellite data for atmospheric column NO2. We estimate that swift action in China is effective in limiting the number of COVID-19 cases <100,000 with a reduction in CO2 emissions of up to 23% by the end of February 2020, whereas a 1-week delay would have required greater containment and a doubling of the emission reduction to meet the same goal. By analyzing the costs of health care and fatalities, we find that the benefits on public health due to reduced activities in China are 10-fold larger than the loss of gross domestic product. Our findings suggest an unprecedentedly high cost of maintaining activities and CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and stress substantial benefits of containment in public health by taking early actions to reduce activities during the outbreak of COVID-19.
- Queensland University of Technology Australia
- French National Centre for Scientific Research France
- Peking University China (People's Republic of)
- Fudan University China (People's Republic of)
- CEA LETI France
Science (General), 330, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, COVID-19 pandemic, Carbon emission, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Article, Social carbon cost, Q1-390, energy consumption, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Public health, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, public health, Integrated model, Correlation analysis, Containment efficacy, Energy consumption, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, //metadata.un.org/sdg/3 [http], social carbon cost, containment efficacy, carbon emission
Science (General), 330, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, COVID-19 pandemic, Carbon emission, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Article, Social carbon cost, Q1-390, energy consumption, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Public health, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, public health, Integrated model, Correlation analysis, Containment efficacy, Energy consumption, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, //metadata.un.org/sdg/3 [http], social carbon cost, containment efficacy, carbon emission
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).31 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 42 download downloads 58 - 42views58downloads
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