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Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts

Potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems and the environment are generally assessed by summarizing climate change scenarios for broad regions (for example countries), or by specific modelling exercises. This paper presents an alternative approach for summarizing climate change impacts on the European environment, by linking climate change scenarios to recognized environmental divisions. Sixteen climate scenarios from four general circulation models were therefore linked to 84 statistically derived strata sharing common environmental features. In this way, the future distribution of the strata, as defined by their climate characteristics, were quantified and mapped. The results show that Europe is likely to experience major environmental shifts, with pronounced regional variations. As expected, environmental strata shift northwards. In particular the southern Mediterranean strata are projected to expand, whereas Atlantic environments remain much more stable. Alpine and Mediterranean mountain environments decline dramatically. However, the Scandinavian zones show no consistent pattern of change. More detailed analysis of four sample regions shows that the impacts of the projected shifts will largely depend on regional characteristics. Environmental conservation, regional assessments and scenario development could therefore be facilitated by combining relevant regional datasets (for example for vegetation, land cover and species distribution) with the shifting environmental strata
- Wageningen University & Research Netherlands
- Government of the United Kingdom United Kingdom
- University of Edinburgh Finland
- Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs United Kingdom
- University of Edinburgh
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2307, shifting environments, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2309, vulnerability, climate response surfaces, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2308, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, regional assessment, scale, stratification, environmental stratification, global change, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Water Science and Technology, great-britain, model, potential impacts, scenarios, conservation, Pollution, Europe, climate change, species distributions, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2310, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312, policy
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2307, shifting environments, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2309, vulnerability, climate response surfaces, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2308, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, regional assessment, scale, stratification, environmental stratification, global change, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Water Science and Technology, great-britain, model, potential impacts, scenarios, conservation, Pollution, Europe, climate change, species distributions, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2310, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312, policy
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).52 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
