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</script>Novel Indicators for the Quantification of Resilience in Critical Material Supply Chains, with a 2010 Rare Earth Crisis Case Study
We introduce several new resilience metrics for quantifying the resilience of critical material supply chains to disruptions and validate these metrics using the 2010 rare earth element (REE) crisis as a case study. Our method is a novel application of Event Sequence Analysis, supplemented with interviews of actors across the entire supply chain. We discuss resilience mechanisms in quantitative terms-time lags, response speeds, and maximum magnitudes-and in light of cultural differences between Japanese and European corporate practice. This quantification is crucial if resilience is ever to be taken into account in criticality assessments and a step toward determining supply and demand elasticities in the REE supply chain. We find that the REE system showed resilience mainly through substitution and increased non-Chinese primary production, with a distinct role for stockpiling. Overall, annual substitution rates reached 10% of total demand. Non-Chinese primary production ramped up at a speed of 4% of total market volume per year. The compound effect of these mechanisms was that recovery from the 2010 disruption took two years. The supply disruption did not nudge a system toward an appreciable degree of recycling. This finding has important implications for the circular economy concept, indicating that quite a long period of sustained material constraints will be necessary for a production-consumption system to naturally evolve toward a circular configuration.
- Yale University United States
- University of Tokyo Japan
- hsg Bochum - University of Applied Sciences Germany
- Leiden University Netherlands
- Utrecht University Netherlands
Mitigation, Agent based modelling, SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Cost–benefit analysis, Climate change, Humans, Metals, Rare Earth, Recycling, Adaptation, SDG 12 - Responsible Consumption and Production, Integrated assessment modelling
Mitigation, Agent based modelling, SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Cost–benefit analysis, Climate change, Humans, Metals, Rare Earth, Recycling, Adaptation, SDG 12 - Responsible Consumption and Production, Integrated assessment modelling
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).70 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
