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A multiscalar global evaluation of the impact of ENSO on droughts

doi: 10.1029/2011jd016039
handle: 10261/43474
42 Pag., 13 Fig. The definitive version is available at: http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/ In this study we analyzed the influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on drought severity at the global scale. A unique aspect of the analysis is that the ENSO influence was quantified using a multiscalar drought indicator, which allowed assessment of the role of the ENSO phases on drought types affecting various hydrological, agricultural and environmental systems. The study was based on ENSO composites corresponding to El Niño and La Niña phases, which were obtained from the winter El Niño 3.4 index for the period 1901–2006. Drought was identified in a multiscalar way using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the global SPEIbase data set. The study revealed the differing impacts of the El Niño and La Niña phases on drought severity, the time scales of droughts, and the period of the year when the ENSO phases explained drought variability worldwide. In large areas of America and eastern Europe the role of ENSO events were evident at the shortest time scales (1–3 months) at the beginning of events, but in areas of South Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia the effects were more obvious some months later, and at longer time scales. We also identified areas where severe drought conditions are associated with more than 70% of ENSO events. The persistence of the drought signal at longer time‐scales (e.g., 6‐ or 12‐months) is not directly determined by the atmospheric circulation response to the SST anomalies, since the SPEI anomalies will be caused by the cumulative dry conditions in some specific months. Knowledge of how these effects differ as a function of the El Niño and La Niña phases, and how they propagate throughout the drought time scales could aid in the prediction of the expected drought severity associated with the ENSO. Lags detected during the study may help forecasting of dry conditions in some regions up to one year before their occurrence. This work has been supported by the research projects CGL2008-01189/BTE and CGL2006-11619/HID financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER, EUROGEOSS (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226487) and ACQWA (FP7-ENV-2007-1- 212250) financed by the VII Framework Programme of the European Commission, “Las sequías climáticas en la cuenca del Ebro y su respuesta hidrológica” and “La nieve en el Pirineo aragonés: Distribución espacial y su respuesta a las condiciones climáticas” Financed by “Obra Social La Caixa” and the Aragón Government. Peer reviewed
- Universidade de Vigo Spain
- Spanish National Research Council Spain
- Universidade de Vigo Spain
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología Spain
Southern Oscillation, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Atmospheric circulation, La Niña, predictability, Climate change, El Niño
Southern Oscillation, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Atmospheric circulation, La Niña, predictability, Climate change, El Niño
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).129 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 73 download downloads 477 - 73views477downloads
Data source Views Downloads DIGITAL.CSIC 73 477


