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Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Authors: Florian Ladstädter; Sandip Dhomse; Luke D. Oman; David A. Plummer; Guang Zeng; David W. J. Thompson; Giovanni Pitari; +28 Authors

Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Abstract

AbstractSimulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979–2016 in models from the Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979–2005 are −0.88 ± 0.23, −0.70 ± 0.16, and −0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40–50 km), 2 (~35–45 km), and 1 (~25–35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13–22 km) is −0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979–2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998–2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979–1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone‐induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite‐observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry‐climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2005 simulated in Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry‐climate models.

Countries
Germany, Italy, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Germany
Keywords

ddc:004, chemistry-climate model, ozone depletion, 550, DATA processing & computer science, 551, 004, observations, satellites, chemistry-climate model; greenhouse gases; ozone depletion; satellites; stratosphere; temperature trends; Geophysics; Earth and Planetary Sciences (all), Erdsystem-Modellierung, stratosphere, greenhouse gases, Temperature trends, global modelling, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/004, temperature trends; stratosphere; greenhouse gases; satellites; ozone depletion; chemistry‐climate model, climate Change

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
54
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold