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Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers

Authors: Matthew Kasoar; Bjørn Hallvard Samset; Trond Iversen; Marianne Tronstad Lund; Dagmar Fläschner; Viatcheslav Kharin; Drew Shindell; +16 Authors

Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers

Abstract

AbstractThe Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short‐lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2.

Countries
France, France, United Kingdom, France, France, Belgium, France, France
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, SEA-ICE LOSS, POLAR AMPLIFICATION, 551, MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT, [SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics], [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, greenhouse gases, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, VERTICAL STRUCTURE, ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE, TEMPERATURE, Arctic amplification, climate drivers, Science & Technology, STRATOSPHERIC OZONE, AEROSOL, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], PRECIPITATION, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences, BLACK CARBON, 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, aerosols

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    42
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
42
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid