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Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

doi: 10.1029/2019ef001273
handle: 11343/290355
AbstractExtreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.
- UNSW Sydney Australia
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory United States
- University of California System United States
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory United States
- University of Melbourne Australia
extreme events, Ecology, Environmental Science and Management, communication, attribution, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Environmental sciences, climate change, Behavioral and Social Science, GE1-350, QH540-549.5
extreme events, Ecology, Environmental Science and Management, communication, attribution, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Environmental sciences, climate change, Behavioral and Social Science, GE1-350, QH540-549.5
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