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Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk

AbstractThe climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
- Utrecht University Netherlands
- University of Reading United Kingdom
- Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres Germany
- University of Reading United Kingdom
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research Switzerland
Ecology, 530 Physics, low likelihood, decision-making, high‐impact events, Environmental sciences, storylines, climate change, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), SDG 13 - Climate Action, GE1-350, decision‐making, 910 Geography & travel, high-impact events, 550 Earth sciences & geology, QH540-549.5, General Environmental Science, risk
Ecology, 530 Physics, low likelihood, decision-making, high‐impact events, Environmental sciences, storylines, climate change, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), SDG 13 - Climate Action, GE1-350, decision‐making, 910 Geography & travel, high-impact events, 550 Earth sciences & geology, QH540-549.5, General Environmental Science, risk
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).91 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
