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Increasing Synchronous Fire Danger in Forests of the Western United States

doi: 10.1029/2020gl091377
AbstractWidespread fire activity taxes suppression resources and can compound wildfire hazards. We examine the geographic synchronicity of fire danger across western United States forests as a proxy for the strain on fire suppression resource availability. Interannual variability in the number of days with synchronous fire danger, defined as fire weather indices exceeding the local 90th percentile across ≥40% of forested land, was strongly correlated (r = 0.85) with the number of days with high strain on national fire management resources. A 25‐day increase in the annual number of days with synchronous fire danger was observed during 1979–2020. Climate projections show a doubling of such days by 2051–2080. Such changes will escalate the likelihood of years with extended periods of synchronous fire danger that have historically strained suppression efforts and contributed to additional burned area, therein requiring additional management strategies for coping with anticipated surges in fire suppression demands.
- University of California System United States
- Columbia University United States
- University of California, Merced United States
- University of California, Merced United States
- Washington State University United States
Agricultural, QC801-809, Forestry Sciences, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Veterinary and Food Sciences, extremes, wildfire, Climate Action, climate change, weather, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, western United States, Environmental Sciences
Agricultural, QC801-809, Forestry Sciences, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Veterinary and Food Sciences, extremes, wildfire, Climate Action, climate change, weather, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, western United States, Environmental Sciences
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).72 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
